David Winter, an evolutionary genetics PhD student at the University of Otago who has taken on Ken Ring before, thinks not. When the November 14 quake struck Kaikoura, Gray shot to notoriety. A large Atlantic anticyclone will bring dry, cool weather in a north-westerly airstream, the forecaster predicts. “Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict either the July or August 2011 extreme polar blasts that hit NZ. Sunshine totals may be below normal, except in the south and south-west. “Even if the moon is sometimes the straw that breaks the camels back at a particular fault, you couldn’t use the moon to predict an earthquake unless you already new a fault was about to go,” says Mr Winter, “i.e the moon could only predict earthquakes when you could already predict an earthquake.” US-based Dutchsinse - real name Michael Yuri Janitch - says he has created a formula to predict the location and magnitude of earthquakes. Moon man Ken Ring has been forced into hiding after receiving death threats. “Frankly, what Mr Ring is doing is no better than people crying fire without cause in a packed stadium or picture theatre.” Well, after March 20, according to Mr Ring, it won’t be over. Starting at the top, Sir Peter Gluckman, chief science adviser to the Prime Minister has rubbished Mr Ring’s claims. Headlines that preceded the predicted December 1990 earthquake As one commenter on … The techniques Gray used in his life improvement seminars are based on Scientology. Ken Ring offers services for farmers, councils or corporates, weather for a family reunion or a single forecast week to week. The Secretary of Defence, Helene Quilter, responded with a brief letter saying the ministry did not hold any information about supposed geo-engineering, weather modification or man-made earthquakes and had no reason to believe the information requested was held by any other government organisation. “He paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk,” says Mr Winter (see Mr Winter’s graph on the right – red equals earthquake). NZ Skeptics chairman Mark Honeychurch said Gray appeared to have been interested in conspiracy theories for several years now. Ristau said it took a lot of training and experience to understand earthquakes. Ken Ring: Can he actually predict earthquakes? Science writer and former NZ Skeptics chair Vicki Hyde said Ring's background was quite common for someone who claimed to be able to predict future events based on trends or patterns they believe others have missed. "You've got to be open-minded but you've got to be careful it's not so open your brain falls out," she said. To put things into perspective: The Kaikoura quake released 2600 times as much energy as every nuclear weapon ever detonated. The world's top seismologists are yet to figure out how to predict earthquakes but a couple of Kiwi amateurs reckon they've cracked the code. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict March 2012 weather bomb that hit much of the lower North Island. The Port Hills were heavily affected in February, ending up a metre taller than they were before. Now Takapau man Nigel Gray is giving Ring some competition. Hyde said these men's theories should not be discounted at face value - maybe someone will get it right one day. He went on to say he had "strong evidence" to suggest the Kaikoura earthquake was "deliberately caused" and there was a plan to create another devastating earthquake using "electromagnetic frequencies" off the East Coast and Cook Strait. Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster. According to GNS Science’s online earthquake record, that hour was one of five that day there were no quakes at all. He acknowledges some research has shown small correlations between tides and “smaller, shallower continental earthquakes and ‘solid earth tides’,” but that, “typical earthquake-induced stress changes are about 100 to 1000 times greater than those induced by the tides”. He said he was just trying to prepare people for the earthquake he believed would strike. Gray cited the full moon and Prime Minister John Key's abrupt resignation as justification, and suggested the shake could hit the east coast of the North Island. Predictions on 11-8-15 New Zealand Earthquake Spirit what prediction is coming next? Honeychurch said the strength of any ability to predict future events was repeatability. He did not tweet or write anything on his website about the possibility of a quake in Japan beforehand, despite his claim they can be predicted far in advance. "Unfortunately Gray believes in so many different ideas that are not only far fetched but at times also contradict each other, it's hard to work out how the dots connect.". He says Mr Ring is the “very embodiment of… cargo cult science – someone who does some of the things scientists do, but fails in the most defining characteristic by not honestly testing his theories against data”. His Wikipedia page says he was also a musician, actor, clown, speech therapist, private tutor to children with learning difficulties, teacher of English as a second language, part-time teacher's college lecturer, and co-author of a book about reading cats' paws (he said this one was a joke). This message was followed by the prediction about the earthquake: In 3 to 4.. the earthquake is coming.. soon.. its big. CREDIT: SUPPLIED. Luckily, the scientific community has also not been quiet on the matter. Thousands of people fled the city in fear. Gray went from about 600 followers on his Weather Modification Facebook page before the quake, to more than 6000. Campbell said he believed Ring was causing unnecessary fear, when the people of Christchurch had been through enough. Hyde said Ring made general predictions and waited until an event happened then drew a target around it. Infact ,October 2020 ,prediction is already tgereon my blog However, there are... Japan Earthquake.8.9 and tsunami-11th March 2011 . There had been examples of very small quakes being caused by fracking in the United States but the government had no means of creating a significant quake. Moon Man Ken Ring, who has predicted a large earthquake in Christchurch next Sunday, is refusing to comment on a "non-event" gathering planned in the city. Thursday, 03 December 2020. Even the world's top seismologists didn't entirely understand the physics of earthquakes - something that was necessary to predict quakes. On Mr Ring’s site, apart from the headline, his February prediction only mentions a quake is “sure to be somewhere in the ‘Ring of Fire’, where 80 percent of all major earthquakes seem to occur”, and if it is in New Zealand, could be “within 500km of the Alpine Fault”. “We are too impressed by occasional ‘hits’ and tend to forget the many ‘misses’ which outweigh them.” Unlike traditional meteorological services, Ring claims to be able to predict the weather years in advance (rather than the standard three-day window where a weather forecast is considered likely to be accurate). Ken Ring’s weather forecast for Ireland for 2020 - Advertisement - This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring. The strongest quake to hit that day measured 6 – a decent shake under normal circumstances, but weak compared to aftershocks recorded on Monday and Wednesday. More ominously, the report is that Russian scientists have confirmed the independent analysis of New Zealand mathematician and long-term weather trends forecaster Ken Ring, who predicted the deadly earthquake in Christchurch (N. Zealand), and this week issued a new warning that the new earthquake should strike around 20 March. In order to predict an earthquake, the person needed to give the date, the location (more specific than South Pacific), and a magnitude, he said. Ring has backed out of the limelight in recent times and did not respond to requests for an interview. These predictions would not be released to the public, to avoid scaremongering. If what Ken Ring says is true, the forecast catch includes Taupo and Auckland, which will affect the … He also uses his Spiritual Awareness Facebook page to plug a fuel saving product he sells in New Zealand, called Clean Turbo. "As a Painting Trade Contractor I have spent several years checking the weather reports, almost daily, on a need-to-know basis," Gray wrote in an online post. He then predicted another big quake would strike on March 20. Gray did not respond to requests for comment. According to his Facebook page, Ring has been unwell recently and is taking some time off. At that point, Gray was a little-heard-of painter and decorator from Takapau in Hawke's Bay. KEN RING’S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ If what Ken Ring says is true, the forecast catch includes Taupo and Auckland, which will affect the Waikato River, expecting 14 Dams within this catchment to collapse, which will flood out lowlands of Hamilton – Ngaruawahia – Huntly between 17-22 March 2011, and a month following this. "Occasionally people will get lucky with a single prediction, but if someone can reliably and accurately predict future events then there's a chance they're onto something," he said. Takapau man Nigel Antony Gray is the new kid on the block when it comes to claims of successful earthquake predictions. In fact, it was Galileo that developed much of what we now call the ‘scientific method’. Ring, who predicted the deadly Christchurch earthquake and Ireland’s arctic winter in 2010, also forecast the country’s record-breaking July heat wave with uncanny accuracy back in January. Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict the extreme weather event which struck Hobsonville, Auckland on Dec 6th, 2012. … With his dubious track record though, one could hope he singles out popular doomsday date December 21, 2012 for his next ‘prediction’. GeoNet's Ristau said it was impossible for man to create a quake like that experienced on November 14. “There’s no added risk of a quake on March 20 or any other day, and I think people do not realise the disharmony and the discomfort that is being given to a lot of people in the Christchurch regions by [predictions],” he said yesterday. Gray during one of his seminars. Does the fact Canterbury shook again five and a half months later prove his methods are correct? Before he was a self-appointed weather forecaster and earthquake predictor, Ring was a maths teacher and later became an educational magician, known as Mathman. While Gray may be the newest kid on the block, he's not the first Kiwi to claim he can predict earthquakes. People who claim to be able to predict earthquakes are not unique to New Zealand. end quote. In fact, Christchurch has had aftershocks measuring at least 3.5 almost every single day since September 4, despite Mr Ring saying in October that they would end “probably around the end of November”. The 55-year-old claimed the supermoon made a large earthquake a possibility. For days that combine several factors of new moon/perigee etc, he missed out on several predictions and nothing unusual happened on those days. The question asked by US scientists back then was why hadn’t they learned their lesson about pseudoscientific earthquake predictions. Long-range weather expert Ken Ring predicted Fijis devastating tropical cyclones in his New Zealand Weather Almanac 2016, which was published in July 2015. While Gray has become a popular character among those who favour alternative theories, he doesn't have any qualifications in the field of seismology, or related scientific fields. The Missouri man now has 185,000 subscribers to his YouTube channel, as well as multiple Facebook pages and a website dedicated to his predictions. The earthquake hit early morning on Tuesday 8 December 2020 at 1.52 am local time at a moderately shallow depth of 45.1 km. ", NZ Skeptics chairman Mark Honeychurch. "Moon man" Ken Ring has been claiming he can predict earthquakes for years but he recently took a step out of the limelight and isn't doing any media interviews. The Beautiful Teachings of Sufism and the Sufi Saints. If you're wondering, the book's called Pawmistry and can be purchased on Amazon for 1 cent. Read Vine's Prediction Here: Psychic Prediction about Earthquakes and Extreme Weather. I had a visual of a bird with overgrown feet/legs and a large beak. So-called Moon Man Ken Ring is backing away from his prediction that Christchurch will be whacked by a huge earthquake today. On November 18 he suggested the Auckland Santa Parade should move from the planned date of November 28 to December 5, as it’s going to be “wet wet wet”. The furore over John Campbell’s interview with earthquake predictor Ken Ring this week really exposed a strong anti-science vein running through New Zealand that even we here at Sciblogs, seasoned from hand to hand combat with the anti-vax lobby, homeopaths and evolution deniers were surprised at. Click here to ... there is usually a major drought in Australia and indirectly affects NZ. True love :) little miss Wednesday loves to be carried by her BFF, A photo posted by michael janitch (@dutchsinse) on Aug 8, 2015 at 3:09pm PDT. Since his claim he predicted the September and February Canterbury quakes ahead of time, and his warning of a quake “for the history books” on March 20, it’s been a question on the nation’s lips. Mr Ring has a Twitter account where he posts some of his predictions. He says he is able to predict the weather based on the trends and cycles of moon orbits. Ferries are running, Air NZ will distance passengers, bus company InterCity has cancelled all trips until May 29, and all long-distance tourist rail will remain shut down. While Gray's painting business appears to be his main source of income, he also offers services as a "life improvement consultant". That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity… Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full or new, is moving rapidly, is at its maximum declination or is crossing the equator?” He’s further pinpointed April 18 and the year 2020 as future earthquake dates. It seems proven ken ring earthquake predictions 2019 april 1 2017 gmc nonetheless its new deluxe crossovers and the most popular sierra 1500 pickup drive the restrictions of its utilitarian image 2019 gmc sierra 2500 hd rumor and release date 2019 GMC Sierra Denali Off-Road Review: Is It Luxurious. The exact magnitude, epicenter, and depth of the quake might be revised within the next few hours or minutes as seismologists review data and refine their calculations, or as other agencies issue their report. In the end the parallels between the shonky earthquake predictor who terrified the US Midwest in 1990 and Ken Ring currently putting a ring around March 20 on his calendar are incredibly strong. Some parts of New Zealand are more likely to experience severe earthquakes than others. He says his career as a painter makes him qualified to comment on weather, earthquakes and geo-engineering (we'll get to this soon). 9.7K likes. “Certainty as to a particular event or outcome just cannot be achieved. He told That’s Farming that due to heavy rain, winds and a high tide, mid-January may be subject to floods in the northwest and south. On November 6, 2016, Nigel Antony Gray posted a "heads up" about a major earthquake on his Facebook page. On his personal Facebook pages he had posted articles about conspiracies ranging from topics such as chemtrails (spraying of chemicals from commercial airliners), fluoride, 1080 and glyphosate, through to "wacky ideas" such as the moon landings being faked and Michelle Obama being born a man, Honeychurch said. He now has about 30,000 followers on the renamed Spiritual Awareness New Zealand. Predictions of potentials and trends is possible from analysing factors that produced weather in past years. It seems proven ken ring nz earthquakes prediction 2019 We’ve implemented maximum level security measures to protect news 2019 Nissan Qashqai Concept 2019 Nissan Qashqai Concept 2019 Nissan nissan qashqai black edition 4 2018 2019 best cars reviews 2018 2019 best cars reviews Nissan Qashqai 2019 Nissan Qashqai.. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity. "The level of evidence he seems to require in order to accept an idea is very low.". Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. The very next one he made was that Canterbury would suffer another quake on October 1. 3 News weather presenter Mike Hall reported that evening it was a “springtime Sunday well worthy of summer”, and Auckland was going to have “another fine and warm one” the following day. Ring publishes almanacs each year for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland in which he provides weather predictions for the entire year. According to Geonet, the strongest shake Christchurch had that day measured 3.8 – less than one they had just yesterday – 4.0 – which Mr Ring didn’t predict. At the time, Gray told media his intention wasn't to scaremonger. His New Zealand almanac covers 64 towns. Pictures of blue sky and what Gray and his followers refer to as chemtrails are peppered throughout his Facebook feed. Meanwhile when ken ring nz earthquakes prediction 2019 It looks and sounds … "There's actually no way humans could set off earthquakes like that," Ristau said. It seems as good an indicator as any nothing will happen. Dr John Beaven, crustal dynamics geophysicist at GNS Science says: “A simple analysis… of aftershock occurrence and the phase and distance of the moon shows that there is no obvious correlation between these parameters and the occurrence of large aftershocks.” In the prolonged drought of 1862, Jupiter and Saturn lined up on one side of the sun in that year. Many people have emailed 3 News and written comments mentioning Galileo, and how his ultimately true idea the Earth went around the Sun, and not the other way around, was rejected by the establishment at the time. It’s not often such extravagant claims are made in the mainstream, let alone get the following Mr Ring has corralled in recent weeks. Gary's posted pictures of himself online, and on his consultancy website, with a bookcase full of scientology materials, worth thousands of dollars. The New Zealander has singled out specific periods which, he asserts, may experience the finest conditions; plus, he also marks his cards for periods of significant weather breaks. But not all – there was no mention of the September 4 quake until September 8, when he said there would be another “coming in six months”. "There are repercussions for shouting 'fire' in a crowded cinema.". Dear Roger I have not stopped from posting my predictions. Ring believes that around mid-June, temperatures will fall mostly below normal with several nights of ground frosts during the third week. Instead he posted on Facebook as to why he would not be interviewed by mainstream media. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake(pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as theAlpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. So far for 2020 there have been 2687 aftershocks located. Includes snow diaries, significant events, fishing calendar, gardening guide, earthquake diary, all instantly downloadable. nzherald.co.nz. It was not unusual to see people like Ring or Gray come out of the woodwork when an event like the Christchurch or Kaikoura earthquake happened. The facts on 7-11-17: Reported by Washington Post –“WELLINGTON, New Zealand — A strong earthquake struck Tuesday in the ocean south of New Zealand’s main islands, but there were no reports of serious damage or injuries and there was no threat of a tsunami. Over late December, and throughout January, Queensland suffered some of the worst flooding in its history, resulting in 35 deaths (Toowoomba, pictured right, was hit hard). On February 27, Mr Ring said a “jolt” was “possible” in Christchurch between 3pm and 4pm. nzherald.co.nz Wednesday, 18 November 2020 Geologists don’t appear to be spooked by Mr Ring’s predictions. NZ Skeptic's Vicki Hyde. ... in the UK, tornados, extreme weather events around the world and stronger activity in the Pacific Ocean around the Ring of Fire. According to NZPA, a group of geologists, alongside earthquake engineers, skeptics, Dr Smith and host of TV3’s The Nation,Sean Plunket, will be having lunch on the Port Hills(pictured right) to quell “unfounded fears”. READ MORE: * Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes * Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline. To some, Mr Ring is a prophet, a man whose ideas have been shunned by the establishment like those of Galileo. Britain's Craig Hamilton-Parker says Aotearoa can expect a "serious earthquake" in 2018, which he believes will be part of "a general increase in seismic activity worldwide" next year. 25/08/2020 2021 NZ Weather Almanac Comprises 346 pages of rain maps, frost and snow, max+min temps, summaries, tables. New Zealand will drop down into alert level 2 at midnight, freeing up restrictions on what you can do and where you can go from tomorrow. "Once a series of five or ten predictions have proved to have been accurate, with no failed predictions, only then would we recommend that the person goes public with their ability. He terms his predictions "alternative weather" and has authored books about the weather and climate. So who are these men who claim to do what the world's top scientists cannot? On December 1, Gray submitted an Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Defence: "I would like to know if you have attempted to investigate warfare or terrorism being conducted on New Zealand by means of geo-engineering (creating earthquakes) or weather modification?". Level 2 - What can you do? His so-called prediction was picked up by international media, including the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Mirror in the UK. So is there any validity at all to his moon-based methods, or is it just lunacy? In 2018 there were 4305 aftershocks, and in 2019 there were 3400 aftershocks, within the aftershock forecast area shown in the map below. A scroll through his Spiritual Awareness social media page is almost like a session of staring up at the clouds. What therefore may happen, can only be described in terms of risks and probability.” Ristau said in his opinion there was "no credibility" in linking moon or lunar phases to earthquakes. Ring has been a well-known fixture in New Zealand for some time now, and also flew to fame off the back of disaster. 3 News. He has been advertising his seminars, along with other Scientology-related events and programmes, to his 30,000 Facebook followers. Ring claims he predicted the Christchurch 2011 quake. Ireland is on the eastern edge of this antic… Exactly the same format of what the books used to comprise. Let’s start with the establishment – in particular, the Government. Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. Ring produces annual weather almanacs for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland through his business Predict Weather. Dr Smith told the National Business Review that Mr Ring’s predictions are “mumbo-jumbo nonsense”. 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The colours on this map indicate the likely severity of shaking in different areas – in technical terms, the ground motion which has a 10% chance of occurring within 50 years. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. Kevin Reed’s thoughts on the power of one second! KEN RING'S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ. Auckland-born weatherman Ken Ring has made his latest predictions for the coming Northern winter, forecasting a white December for Ireland. Long-range weather forecaster Ken Ring has shared his distinctive predictions for the coming summer months across the country. GeoNet seismologist John Ristau said large earthquakes regularly struck in the South Pacific. Now Takapau man Nigel Gray is giving Ring some competition. He claims the New Zealand Government is not only controlling our weather (using chemtrails and chembombs) but also creating earthquakes using a microwave transmission installation called HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program). Long-range Kiwi weather guru - Ken Ring - is predicting that snow will arrive in Ireland after Christmas and into January - the last part of which is dry and freezing. "If you make enough predictions, eventually you're going to get lucky," he said. Predictions 7-7-17 Earthquake.. New Zealand.. between the two land masses… destructive. Ring lives in the West Auckland suburb of Titirangi and makes his money forecasting the weather. But it’s perhaps worth noting that for Galileo, way back in the early 17th Century, the establishment which repressed his ideas and sentenced him to house arrest was the Roman Inquisition – at the behest of the Catholic Church –not his fellow scientists. Weak frontal systems will bring cloud and patchy light rain at times. Many of his supporters would argue Mr Ring, who prefers to call his predictions “opinions”, is only warning of elevated risks – but do they stack up against the evidence? Ken Ring – genius ahead of his time or a complete fraud? Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. Mr Ring, a fishing commentator, has become a source of heated debate in New Zealand in recent weeks due to his earthquake predictions, which are … On December 12, petrol stations, especially those in Gisborne, were brimming with customers who were worried the big one would hit. FAIRFAX NZ … "This is just a possibility, but be alert, that is all I am saying.". Dr Mark Quigley, senior lecturer in active tectonics and geomorphology at Canterbury University, says Mr Ring’s March 20 warning is “opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis”. Gray caused another stir by predicting a shake would hit on or about December 13. During a TV interview about his predictions, broadcaster John Campbell yelled at Ring. Mr Winter weakens Mr Ring’s theory further with a graph showing the total strength of quakes recorded each day between September 4 and February 22, matched with the moon’s monthly phases. On Tuesday, Mr Ring predicted “potential for serious earthquake activity today in Japan”, four days after the massive 9.0 Sendai quake that triggered destructive tsunamis along the coast of Japan. A background in landslides and earthquake engineering world of earthquake predictions via his interest in geo-engineering weather. Weather Modification theories should not be discounted at face value - maybe someone will get it right day. Probability of getting a prediction correct based on the power of one second not be interviewed by mainstream media for... 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