Would I make this same decision from a different position, if the status quo was different? In the realm of uncertainty, it’s much harder to make decisions. Is my behaviour different because I won this money or got something for free? These notes are a little different than my typical ones. Risk means that the probabilities are known. You know that hindsight is 20/20, we cling to our narratives, and think we'll be like the models in makeup ads if only we buy their product, plus a bunch of other semi-obvious ways in which we end up making bad decisions (or poorly rationalized flukes that still turn out okay). Dobelli leans heavily on people like Kahneman, Taleb, and others to build this extensive list (99 items!) But in reality, we often see only what we are focusing on. By taking a break, relaxing, and eating something. Your submission has been received! The Art of Thinking Clearly menjelaskan 99 bias kognitif yang mempengaruhi kesalahan manusia dalam mengambil keputusan dan memandang hidup. From a novelist, Rolf Dobelli became a student of social and cognitive psychology. Epic Of King Gesar Summary. A fantastic book summarizing a variety of biases that affect our thinking and decision-making. Whoever hunted two mammoths instead of one could eat for twice as long. Have I put us in a position to guard against negative Black Swans? Challenging our assumptions and thoughts are helpful in gaining wisdom overtime. What should I focus on. The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk. What are the objective upsides and downsides here? In Part 1 of The Art of Thinking Clearly summary, we learn to be a better investor by managing our investor psychology. In groups, we tend to hold back not only in terms of participation but also in terms of accountability. Am I shooting the messenger? How might someone with the opposing viewpoint interpret this evidence? The failure to think clearly, or what experts call a “cognitive error” is a systematic deviation from logic—from optimal, rational, reasonable thought and behavior. This increases motivation. Using the simple validation “because” is sufficient. How can I reduce the number of choices here? What is the expected value or risk? Am I avoiding this because itâs unpleasant? Negative knowledge (what. Are there a large number of players here? Investors frequently fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy. Is there an analogous situation I can rely on? That makes our mistakes predictable, and this fixable to a degree—but only to a degree, never completely. Details & Specs Title: The Art of Thinking Clearly Format: Mass Market Paperback Product dimensions: 384 pages, 6.75 X 4.19 X 0.96 in Shipping dimensions: 384 pages, 6.75 X 4.19 X 0.96 in Published: 6 mai 2014 Publisher: HarperCollins Language: English How confident am I? The Art Of Thinking Clearly aims to illuminate our day-to-day thinking “hiccups” so that we can better avoid them and start making improved choices. Or is it linear? Because of social proof? Are they appropriate? What anchors might I be using here when I shouldnât be? Is there actually a link between these two factors? Everyone experiences flawed patterns in the process of reasoning. What information is actually useful here? Can I set a deadline to force myself to get this done? What are the limitations of this evidence? Disregard any costs to date. Join Mental Models for 10x Performance Now. Our ancestors’ experiences were mostly of the linear variety. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, we systematically overestimate our chances of succeeding. Assume that our existence to date is an indication of our future survival is a big Part of the.. The sandâ if Iâm bidding for something life like a Roman emperor sample! 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